Five-year almond market outlook: Significant rebound underway

A strong rebound in almond prices is expected over the next 12 to 18 months, despite global production returning to higher levels. Production challenges in 2022 and 2023, coupled with an ongoing recovery in global demand, will drive ending stocks to their lowest level in four years. The lower carry-in expected in 2024 and its powerful, multiyear impact on the market are setting the stage for potential price stabilization at stronger levels. While almond production will hit new records over the next five years, so will domestic and export shipments. Reductions of Indian tariffs are fueling strong export growth for both the US and Australia. While health and plant-based food trends, rising incomes, lower inflation, and strong marketing efforts will continue to support almond demand, significant risks remain. Geopolitical tensions are on the rise. Logistical concerns are always looming. Upside energy price volatility is likely. And there is ever-growing competition in the tree nut space.