Five-Year Almond Outlook: Short-Run Volatility Impacts Mid-Term Results

Increased weather variation in and around the 2019 bloom period has driven down yield expectations for the 2019 California almond crop and driven up prices, according to Rabobank’s “Five-Year Almond Outlook.”

Report summary

“While our average 2019/20 and 2020/21 price estimates have been increased, our 2021/22 to 2023/24 price estimates have been lowered, compared to our March 2019 outlook,” according to Roland Fumasi, Senior Analyst – Fresh Produce and Tree Nuts. Growers who maintain average yields for their particular region are highly likely to have positive net cash farm income, even though prices are expected to approach the USD 2.00/lb threshold by 2023/24. However, covering total cost per acre under average conditions will be more challenging as we approach 2023/24.

“Given the expected downward price trend and the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, 2021/22 may be a good time to retire almond acreage that has less-than-ideal yield potential for your growing region. Scrapping underperforming acreage and concentrating available water and other resources on higher-yielding ground is likely prudent.”