Tighter EU Import Rules for Moroccan Tomatoes Won’t Work Miracles

Morocco’s fresh tomato exports to the EU have steadily increased, leading the EU fresh tomato industry to repeatedly lobby for stricter import rules. Blocking Moroccan imports will only benefit leading export nations like Spain and the Netherlands to a limited extent. Investing in consistent quality, flavor, and service and lowering labor costs will be more fruitful strategies.

European trade organizations have recently asked the European Commission to review its import regulations for tomatoes from Morocco, as growing imports of low-priced Moroccan tomatoes are a concern for leading export nations like Spain and the Netherlands1. But, more stringent import rules will only benefit these exporters to a certain extent. After all, Morocco is only a small player in the large EU market. Furthermore, the recent increase in competitive pressure from Morocco is most noticeable outside the EU, especially in the UK.

Moroccan Tomatoes Are Steaming up in the EU

Moroccan tomatoes hold an estimated 6% share of the EU-27+UK’s 7bn kg tomato market. To put this in perspective, the shares of Spanish, Dutch, and Italian tomatoes are 23%, 13%, and 11%, respectively. But over the last decades, EU tomato imports from Morocco have increased steadily. Since 2011, growth has averaged over 3% per year, reaching roughly 620m kg in 2020. At the same time, Spain’s tomato exports have decreased by roughly 3% per year, reaching 729m kg, while Dutch tomato exports have stayed around the 2011 level of just over 1bn kg. The rising popularity of Moroccan tomatoes is mainly the result of low production costs: EUR 1.12/hour in Morocco vs. EUR 8.37/hour in Spain2. Morocco is a particularly competitive supplier of tomatoes that require more labor, like the smaller cherry and snack varieties. Moroccan suppliers, which are usually large, integrated players, are able to offer the increasingly popular small tomato varieties at affordable prices and reasonable quality.

Intense Competition Mainly in France and the UK

Zooming in on the EU’s main tomato import markets, we see different competitors fighting for share in the various tomato markets, with intense competition from Moroccan tomatoes occurring mainly in France and the UK.

In Germany, one of the EU’s main tomato import markets, Moroccan tomatoes account for only 5% of total imports – a share that has not increased over the last decade. Dutch and Spanish market shares in Germany were 50% and 20% respectively in the year 2020. Dutch and domestically produced tomatoes are dominant in the summer season, while Spanish tomatoes reign in the winter season.

In France, Morocco is the leading player in imported tomatoes, with 63% market share (see Figure 1). Spain is number two, with 18% share. French imports from Spain and Morocco – the two countries compete mostly in the same season – have shown a strong negative correlation over the last two decades. This means that, while imports from Morocco have increased, imports from Spain have decreased, and vice versa. But, in recent years, this relationship has become weaker.

20211004_Fig1and2_Tomatoes

Before Brexit, the UK was ranked the third largest EU tomato importer. In the UK, we observe a strong relationship between the rise of Moroccan tomatoes and the decline of Spanish tomatoes (see Figure 2). Interestingly, the strong decline in British tomato imports in 2019 and 2020 mainly impacted Dutch tomatoes in the summer months (see Figure 3). And, it seems that the difficulties emerging from Brexit are hindering Dutch, and maybe Spanish, exports to the UK, while the situation has not changed for Morocco, which was a third country already and has slightly increased exports in the summer months. Other EU destinations have become an easier alternative for EU exporters with multiple options.

20211004_Fig3_Tomatoes

Spain is one of the EU’s main tomato consumption markets, with a total consumption of about 1bn kg. Though Spain’s self-sufficiency rate for tomatoes is high, it still imports tomatoes from Morocco. These imports have increased from 21m kg in 2010 to 78m kg in 2020, and they are partly re-exported by Spanish companies.

Opposing Moroccan Imports to the EU and UK Markets Is Not the Winning Strategy

Lower Spanish export volumes stem from a decrease in Spanish tomato production, which is caused by various factors. These factors include: low profits for growers, partly caused by Moroccan competition in both the EU and UK; increased competition from northern European growers that have started to produce year-round; and a shift among Spanish growers to other crops, like bell peppers. Tomato exports from the Netherlands feel Morocco’s competitive pressure mainly in the UK, but they are also hindered by factors like the customs formalities caused by Brexit. For those reasons, tightening up the import rules for Moroccan tomatoes will not work miracles for tomato exports from Spain and the Netherlands. However, the tomato sectors in Spain and the Netherlands do not have to face a gloomy future if they rely on their strengths. Successful recipes in the European fresh tomato market include the following ingredients: year-round supply, (consistent) high quality, new tasty varieties, sustainable production, reliability, and excellent service. On the cost side, the adoption of automation and robotization for crop handling, harvesting, and packaging can improve the position against Morocco.


 
 
1 https://eucofel.eu/fruitvegetableseurope-calls-on-the-european-commission-to-act-as-regard-the-non-compliance-and-non-implementation-of-the-measures-provided-for-in-the-eu-morocco-association-agreement 
2 Capobianco-Uriarte MdlM, Aparicio J, De Pablo-Valenciano J, Casado-Belmonte MdP (2021) “The European tomato market. An approach by export competitiveness maps.” PLoS ONE 16(5): e0250867. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250867
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