2019 Soybean Baseline: Long-Term Challenges for the US Soybean Complex

The US soybean market is still struggling with large carryover stocks, and outside influences are adding to the bearish tone, according to Rabobank’s most recent soybean baseline outlook.

Report summary

Limited Chinese imports of US soybeans and the continued spread of African swine fever will keep US soybean exports under 2bn bushels. However, US production will not decline, as yields continue to increase, thereby keeping carryover stocks at burdensome levels.

“In this bearish environment, US soybean producers, grain merchandisers, and exporters will be pressed to generate profits,” according to Stephen Nicholson, senior grains & oilseeds analyst. “However, depressed soybean prices and relatively strong soybean meal demand will keep soybean crushers’ margins strong.”