The Future of India's Edible Oil Industry – How Will India's Vegetable Oil Demand Shape Up by 2030?

India’s vegetable oil consumption has been increasing – and it is expected to grow by 3 percent CAGR and to exceed 34m tonnes by 2030, as a base case from 23m tonnes in 2017.

Increasing income, urbanisation, changing food habits, and deeper penetration of processed foods will be key drivers of future consumption growth. Because of current stagnant domestic vegetable oil supplies, vegetable oil import volumes will continue to fill the majority of the supply-and-demand gap over the next decade. Palm oil, soy oil, and sunflower oil are expected to penetrate regional markets further in the future, with the packaged edible oil segment leading the way for future growth of the industry.

However, vegetable oil consumption growth has been putting a lot of pressure on India’s trade balance and budget due to the high dependence on imports. The Indian government might need to step up its efforts to increase domestic oilseed production or pursue other options, such as opening up to imports of GM oilseeds in order to cater to the country’s rising vegetable oil demand.