China’s Soybean Import Outlook Through 2030: Is the Peak Already in the Rearview Mirror?

China is the world’s largest soybean importer, accounting for over 60% of global trade, with soybean imports mainly driven by crushing for feed production. But China’s soybean import volumes might already have passed their peak. Rabobank expects that China’s soybean imports will slow down and eventually decline through 2030 as a result of slower livestock production growth, continuous improvement in farming practices, and, more importantly, widespread adoption of a low-soymeal inclusion ratio in feed formulas nationwide. This will have profound impacts on the entire global supply chain, challenging all participants, including growers, trade merchants, soybean crushers, livestock farms, feed mills, and feed ingredient manufacturers. At the same time, it will create opportunities for startups in terms of technological innovation and novel ingredients.