Demystifying China’s Ma(i)ze: Chinese Feed Grains Through 2030 in Focus

Steadily growing consumption, record-level imports, and inflated prices are expected in the Chinese feed grains market through 2030. In addition, political uncertainties, digital technology disruptions, and increased global attention on sustainability will reshape the future business of every industry stakeholder.

Report Summary

Chinese feed grain consumption is back on a growth track, albeit with a slowing growth trend. Looking ahead, from 2020/21 to 2025/26, Chinese feed use will gain momentum, rising 3.3% per annum, with hog feed remaining the largest growth engine.

In China, corn takes up 80% of grain share in feed. However, the future availability of feed corn will face challenges. Since 2016/17, Chinese corn has consistently registered deficits. “The government needs to reform existing policies to stimulate domestic production, otherwise, corn inventory will drop further to a severely low level,” according to Lief Chiang, Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds. In the meanwhile, and at least until production catches up, high imports of corn and other feed grains will be needed to fill the supply-demand gap.

Buoyed by strong exports to China, international corn prices have also shown an uptrend so far in 2020, and will gain further support from China’s future import demand.