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The F&A Fallout of a Fragmented World: A Thought Experiment

  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Dairy
  • Animal Protein
30 June 2021

In 2020, Rabobank’s Global Economics and Markets team considered a thought experiment of an increasingly fragmented world in which the liberal world order partially collapses by 2030. With this follow-up report, we explore the hypothetical implications for global food & agribusiness (F&A) that would stem from such an implied multipolar world with heavy trade restrictions and severe changes to the farm-to-fork supply chain.

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World Grains & Oilseeds Map 2021: New Demand Drivers, Political Tensions, and Weather Volatility

  • Grains & Oilseeds
4 May 2021

In the five years up to 2019/20, the global trade volume of all grains and oilseeds increased by about 120m metric tons at a 3.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). However, the pace of growth decreased when compared to the 6% CAGR, or 160m metric tons, of the previous five years. Although oilseed complex (oilseed, meal, and oil) prices declined during this period, the upside in grain prices, coupled with the total trade volume increase, resulted in a 17% increase in the total value of flows.

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