Living on a thin line: Overcoming the confluence of challenges facing the US cotton industry in 2023
Over the past year, cotton has been caught in a confluence of short-term challenges, largely related to cotton’s vulnerability to macroeconomic uncertainty, and a number of long-term headwinds.
While economic uncertainty is clouding cotton demand this year, the fiber also faces a number of more impactful, long-term structural challenges. On the demand side, this includes a shift in consumer preference toward synthetics, a heightened trend during the pandemic. Meanwhile, on the supply side, the ecosystem of machinery unique to cotton harvesting and ginning is aging. This machinery is not always replaced, contributing in its own way to a vicious cycle of declining acreage.
It appears that cotton markets will get worse before they get better. In the near term, demand will be hampered by consumers finding themselves under increased economic pressure. Beyond the recession, a return to office for more workers will prompt a reinvestment in clothing made from natural fibers, supporting a recovery in cotton prices for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Longer term, the cotton industry globally will need to make new investments in fiber innovation and marketing to escape the cycle of stagnant demand, a zero-sum game which will become increasingly precarious for producers as a competitive Brazilian industry continues to grow.
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Owen WagnerSenior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds Read more