Malting Industry Outlook 2030: Structural Implications of Key Beer Trends on the Global Malt Industry
Global malt demand is expected to reach 23.1m metric tons by 2030, a growth of 1.3m metric tons (or 6%) over 2019 pre-Covid levels. “The key factors that will positively impact malt demand are rising malt inclusion rates and beer volumes in emerging markets in their embryonic stage, whereas declines in beer volume in mature markets and emerging-developed markets will negatively impact malt demand,” according to Maria Afonso, Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds. The malt inclusion rate increase will be driven by a rising craft beer segment and by the premiumization of non-craft beer in both types of emerging markets.
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Key trends driving malt demand in the beer industry:
- Global beer volumes declining marginally and shifting toward emerging markets
Beer is the major destination for malt, accounting for 80% to 90% of global malt use. In mature economies, consumption is under pressure. However, in emerging markets improvements in affordability are leading to volume growth and migration away from illicit alcohol. As a result, global beer consumption is declining marginally and is shifting from mature regions in North America and western Europe to emerging markets in Africa and Southeast Asia.
- Higher malt inclusion rates caused by growth in the craft beer segment and premiumization
Emerging-developed markets have recently moved from emerging to mature trends, as consumers no longer want to drink more, but ‘better.’ Here, as in mature markets, the share of craft beer (which uses up to three times as much malt per hectoliter) is increasing.Premium beer (which uses more malt and fewer adjuncts) is also growing, resulting in a higher malt inclusion rate for non-craft beer. After the Covid crisis, the long-term premiumization trend is expected to return, and malt demand will grow from a decreased 2020 basis.