Opening the Bread Basket of Europe

The infrastructure potential of the Danube and Black Sea Region (BSR) is growing. The region will consolidate its position as the third-largest grain & oilseed (G&O) exporting region worldwide, triggering huge investments in port logistics infrastructure across countries. This is due to the Danube and BSR’s strategic location, price competitiveness and other structural advantages.

picture of danube and BSR G&O flows

Report summary

The Danube and BSR are a must for G&O players who want to benefit from the global long-term wheat demand and capture trade flow potentials. By 2030, the Danube and Black Sea Region will further strengthen its position as the third-largest grain & oilseed exporter worldwide, as the region is expected to increase exports and gain market share in the wheat trade to Africa (both North and Sub-Saharan Africa), South-East Asia and the Middle East. This is due to a number of aspects: its strategic location close to large consuming and fast-growing regions, strong price competitiveness, good quality soil and sufficient growth potential in land bank and yields. All this will translate into a need for strong expansion of port logistic infrastructure across Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine and Russia.

Investment needs in port logistic infrastructures are expected to reach 15 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes of throughput by 2030. That is an increase of 13 percent to 36 percent. The growth, however, will be different in each sub-region:
•    Romania is the main hub for leveraging the position of Constanța, while sourcing from various Danube countries like Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Bulgaria. The expected growth in EU Black Sea port logistic infrastructure ranges from 43 percent to 60 percent
•    Ukraine is expected to show the second highest growth as the country is strongly export-oriented. The export-throughput port capacity increase ranges from 11 percent to 27 percent
•    Russia has sufficient infrastructure. However, in our optimistic scenario, strong development in the winter wheat region and in districts in southern Russia can trigger additional investment needs in port logistic infrastructure of up to 35 percent.

G&O companies should simultaneously take steps in origination and destination in order to capture these growing trade flow opportunities in the Danube and BSR. Find out more about the region’s position as a market maker for wheat and its strategic position in general in Rabobank’s latest RaboResearch report Opening the Bread Basket of Europe: Growing Infrastructure Potential in the Danube and Black Sea Region.

  • Vito Martielli

    Senior Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Al Griffin

    Senior Data Analyst
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  • Roel van de Ven

    Associate Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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