Opportunity Awaits for the ‘Bolled’ and the Brave: A Ten-Year Outlook to 2029/30
Rabobank documents a growing opportunity for Australian cotton to raise its global export share two percentage points in the next decade in its cotton outlook, “Opportunity Awaits for the ‘Bolled’ and the Brave”.
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Rabobank’s modelling suggests Australia has the opportunity to raise its annual global cotton exports to +5 million bales by 2030. “To capitalise on this future opportunity, the Australian industry will need: 1) an upward trend in existing domestic yields, 2) sustainable expansion in cotton area, and 3) continued focus on fibre quality, sustainability, and open trade”, according to Charles Clack – Commodity Analyst.
Australian exports should focus on Southeast Asian markets, as they account for 55% of global demand growth in the next decade. Though NSW and southern Queensland will contribute heavily towards future national output, Rabobank believes northern Australia will play an essential role in meeting future Australian export potential, due to its production potential and water availability. However, negative perceptions of cotton among part of the Australian public are a major challenge to expansion. Australia’s cotton industry must grow and maintain its social licence to operate.
“To meet this opportunity, the cotton industry will need to target Southeast Asian markets, maintain social licence, and unlock the potential of the north”.