Soybeans Poised for Growth: Measuring Competitiveness Among Soybean Exporters
Based on our analysis of competing soybean exporters, Rabobank expects Brazil’s production growth to continue to take a lead above the US and Argentina during the next ten years, as a result of positive farm margins and land availability in Brazil.
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In a scenario of low international prices over the next ten years, the growth of soybean area gives Brazil a competitive advantage. In the US, logistics remain a key competitive advantage, but high land costs and low soybean prices pressure farm margins, making a noteworthy acreage expansion unlikely. Argentina has the lowest variable soybean cost among the main producers in the world, but high export taxes should limit expansion of soybean acreage into new areas, given the negative impact on farmgate prices and profit margins.
Slowing population and income growth are expected to create lower consumption growth for the next ten years. “We expect global soybean demand to reach 425m metric tons in 2030, up 22% from 2019/20. This would be much slower than the +113m metric tons of growth in the past decade,” according to Victor Ikeda – Grains & Oilseeds Senior Analyst.
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