Where Import and Origination Meet: The G&O Trade Potential in the Western Indian Ocean region and North Africa

The Western Indian Ocean region and North Africa are key regions for global net G&O imports. Two important origination regions in this regard are the Black Sea Region for grains and Southeast Asia for palm oil.

“East and North Africa and the Arabian Sea Region are expected to report further strong growth in grain & oilseed consumption by 2030, driven by a rising population and changing diets,” says Vito Martielli – Senior Grain & Oilseed Analyst. “This is mainly seen in a shift towards wheat consumption in East Africa, and an increase in poultry consumption in North Africa and the Arabian Sea Region.”

Currently, these regions account for around 117m metric tons of imported G&O – 21% of global imports, with a value of around USD 25bn. Rabobank expects an increase of 60% through 2030, compared to a 66% increase in the past 12 years. The increase in imports will differ per commodity and sub-region: developing countries in East Africa, emerging markets in North Africa, and developed countries in the Arabian Sea Region.

  • Vito Martielli

    Senior Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Berend Stofferis

    Quantitative Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds
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