China Food & Agribusiness Bimonthly September/October 2021

A spate of events, from floods to Covid-19 Delta variant-related lockdowns, have further clouded China’s consumption picture during Q3. How is this affecting various F&A sectors?

The main highlights include:

-    Farm Inputs: The Chinese government is making an effort to ensure domestic supply, curb export, and stabilize prices. In the near term, prices of nitrogen and potash fertilizer are likely to see a mild decline, amid weak demand. The price of phosphate fertilizer will stay high, supported by costly raw materials
-    Grains & Oilseeds: As large quantities of new corn are available soon, the domestic corn price will experience some seasonal price corrections for the rest of 2021. The domestic soymeal price will be in line with the movement of CBOT Soybeans, subject to US soy yield and weather conditions in the South American planting season. Comparably speaking, due to low edible oil inventory, the price of soy oil will perform stronger than that of soymeal.
-    Animal Protein: Pork prices have been generally below cost price for months, leading China’s government to launch a new round of state reserve purchases. Pork imports may decline further in the coming months. Poultry demand has been weak due to Covid-19-related restrictions on gathering and group dining. Demand is expected to improve slightly in the coming months, if no further disruptions.
-    Dairy: Slowdown or falls in imports will likely kick in from September onward to start to rebalance the market. Processors will feel the pressure much more on profitability in 2H 2021, barring meaningful and broad product price rises.
-    Beverages: Alcoholic beverage companies, especially beer, have accelerated the diversification of their existing portfolios by acquiring liquor brands or launching soft drink products. In response to these aggressive initiatives, leading soft drink companies are also proactively laying out the alcoholic beverage market.
-    Consumer Foods: China’s foodservice sector registered a 14.3% YOY rise in July 2021, reaching value sales of CNY 375.1bn. QSR chains accelerated delivery channel expansion to prepare for the future. Total accumulated food-related retail sales of enterprises above designated grew by a value of 10.2% YOY in July.

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  • Ping Chew

    Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - Asia
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  • Sandy Chen

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Chenjun Pan

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Lief Chiang

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Stacie Wan

    Analyst – Supply Chains and Beverages
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  • Michelle Huang

    Analyst – Consumer Foods
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