Australia Agribusiness April 2021: Prices Near the Edge, or on Firm Footing?

Here are the main highlights for some of Australia’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.


Report summary

• Global grains & oilseeds prices to remain elevated YOY, but softness expected mid-year, during Northern Hemisphere harvest
• A full-year milk price of AUD 6.65/kgMS for 2021/22 in the southern export sector is forecast
• Rain in Queensland to push cattle prices higher
• A lift in US import prices could keep lamb prices strong
• A deeper 2.8m metric ton global sugar deficit is expected in 2020/21 
• After a quiet March, market volatility might return again in 1H 2021 for cotton
• Optimism about demand improvement to keep wool prices steady, with possible upside in coming months
• A year after ‘V-day’, Chinese food channels remain heavily distorted. Only a slow drift to normalization in 2021 is expected
• The toll of tensions with China is becoming clearer, but Australian exports can rise regardless
• Global prices will begin to subside in April, initially for urea, before phosphates follow later in Q2. For local farmers acquiring phosphate, relief will be too late for this season
• The AUD has lost ground against a stimulated USD. Little further downside for the AUD is expected in the near term, and some strengthening thereafter, as expectations for US inflation prove over-done
  • Tim Hunt

    Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - Australia & New Zealand
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Analyst - Agriculture
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  • Charles Clack

    Commodity Analyst
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds, Animal Protein
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  • Blake Holgate

    Analyst - Animal Protein, Sustainability
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