Australia Agribusiness June 2021: Approaching the new season with a full head of steam

Here are the main highlights for some of Australia’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

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Report summary

- In commodities, AUD farmgate prices edge up further on tight global markets and depleted local herds.  High pricing, and favourable seasonal conditions see the industry approach start the 2020/21 season with a full head of steam.
 
- Australia is on track for another above average grains harvest so local prices will be down year-on-year, but not out, due to strong global wheat, corn and soybean pricing
 
- All official milk prices have landed with a range of AUD 6.40-AUD 7.00/kgMS
 
- Favourable seasons ahead suggest good beef prices will continue
 
- Lamb prices not expecting a big seasonal jump, but remaining strong
 
- Brazilian sugar yields set to determine price outlook, just as the domestic crush kicks in
 
- The USDA confirms a supportive cotton supply and demand for 2021/22, in line with Rabobank’s future outlook
 
- Improving retail apparel sales provide encouraging signs to support ongoing wool price improvement
 
- Australian food service recovery outpaced that in China and the US in April, but will slow with Victoria’s lockdown
 
- Downside ahead expected for global urea markets in coming months. Due to the time taken for procurement and shipping, it is expected this will be too late for local farmers this winter and spring season.
 
- AUD expected to trade close to its current level against the USD for six or so months, with both economies recovering well
 
- Ocean freight prices for dry bulk and container freight continue to trade at record highs. Without any significant government intervention, it is expected to see this rate spike continuing into Q1 2022.
  • Tim Hunt

    Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - Australia & New Zealand
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  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds; Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness – Australia & New Zealand, a.i.
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds, Animal Protein
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Analyst - Agriculture
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  • Charles Clack

    Commodity Analyst
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