Australia Agribusiness May 2021: Who Is My Customer Now?

Here are the main highlights for some of Australia’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.


Report summary

- In commodities, AUD farmgate prices rose in April as the impact of crop downgrades trumped a stronger local currency.

- Severe tightness in global grain stocks means even small seasonal condition downgrades will prompt prices higher in the coming months with exaggerated volatility.

- The first official milk price for 2021/22 has come in earlier and higher than last year.

- Producers were less active in the weaner cattle market during Q1. Are they backing out of the market?

- As we rebuild the sheep flock, are we changing focus slightly to a greater emphasis on sheepmeat?

- Early signs point to Brazilian yield issues, making for a particularly volatile outlook for sugar.

- US conditions to dictate cotton prices as local growers gear up for strong 2022 production.

- US apparel sales recover to pre-pandemic levels. The EMI is expected to move to a AUc 1,400-AUc 1,500/kg range in 2021.

- Consumer food channels are reaching a far more normal balance in our key markets at home and abroad. But watch for bumps in the road ahead.

- Global prices of nitrogen and phosphate have largely peaked across the global fertiliser complex, and are expected to continue to ease into Q3.

- The AUD rose through April on falling US treasury yields and stronger commodity prices. We expect near-term stabilisation.

- Brent Crude is expected to average in the high USD 60s/bbl in the coming months.

  • Tim Hunt

    Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - Australia & New Zealand
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  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds, Animal Protein
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Analyst - Agriculture
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  • Charles Clack

    Commodity Analyst
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