Australia Agribusiness September 2021: Prices Going Above and Beyond

Here are the main highlights for some of Australia’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

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Report summary

- Strong month-on-month price increases for most commodities have seen the Rabobank Rural Commodity Price Index rise by another 3.26% in August, to its highest level on record. Key drivers are expected to hold out to Q4.

- Firming production prospects mean Australia is getting ready to take full advantage of very favourable global grain prices.

- A close eye should be kept on the New Zealand spring peak, which will set local dairy price direction in the coming months.

- For beef, records keep getting broken, but are we starting to see livestock numbers lift?

- We’ve seen a slight hiccup in sheepmeat prices, but a seasonal decline is still expected.

- We forecast cotton prices around AUD 620/bale for Q3 2021, on the back of persistently strong demand and ongoing AUD weakness.

- Delta’s spread is creating a cautious atmosphere, but the outlook for wool prices is still positive.

- The Covid-19 Delta variant continues to cloud the pathway to reopening food markets.

- High global fertiliser prices are expected to stay until at least the new year, primarily supported by the ongoing strength of commodity prices.

- Rabobank continues to see downside for the AUD and has adjusted its forecast down to USc 70 for Q4 2021, before a move back toward USc 71 in 1H 2022.

- Brent Crude has slipped in recent weeks, with prices falling from USD 77/bbl to as low as USD 65/bbl. We expect this trend to reverse toward the end of the year, and prices to strengthen again.
  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds; Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness – Australia & New Zealand, a.i.
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds, Animal Protein
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Analyst - Agriculture
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  • Genevieve Steven

    Analyst – Agriculture
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