Global Walnut Update in a Nutshell: US Market Outlook, 2022/23 to 2026/27

The global walnut market is shifting. Exports continue to grow, with the US as the largest exporter, but new players such as China, Chile, and Ukraine are becoming increasingly relevant. In terms of imports, the EU and Turkey remain as the top markets with steady demand, while imports into the UAE and India are growing rapidly. In 2021/22, US production is likely to decline after a record crop in the previous season. We expect that US walnut production will stay relatively flat in the next few years.

Current prices are unlikely to provide enough incentives for further acreage expansion or reduction, but regulations and cost increases will continue to pressure margins. In this report, we provide a five-year outlook for the US walnut market, including production, shipment, and price estimates. Furthermore, we discuss the outlook for the walnut industry in Chile, which is expanding its export markets. While increasing input costs represent a challenge in the short run, sustainability-related opportunities could provide a competitive edge for the walnut industry in the longer term.