New Zealand Agribusiness Outlook 2022: Will the Party Continue in 2022?

Adverse weather, concern about food shortages, and Covid-induced supply chain chaos worldwide all helped to channel record farmgate pricing locally for most New Zealand-produced commodities in 2021, marking five years of broad-based profitability for NZ farmers.

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Report summary

The profitable run for most NZ agri sectors looks likely to extend into 2022. However, rocketing input costs and crimped production in some regions will not translate into new benchmark profits, and exporters once again will need to navigate high shipping costs and challenging logistics.

Moreover, pressure on NZ agriculture to contribute to the broader climate and environmental cause will continue. Now is the time to hold a broader discussion on future land use, farming systems, and the role of technology in New Zealand agriculture.  

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch.

• Firm pricing across the dairy complex will continue in the face of declining global milk supply, calling for a profitable year for NZ farmers despite elevated costs.

• We expect farmgate beef pricing to remain elevated above the five-year average in 2022, supported by constrained global beef supply and strong demand from China and the US.

• Demand and supply drivers that elevated global urea prices to record levels have begun to ease. We expect this is the beginning of a slow decline in urea prices over the next six months.

• Regulatory frameworks continue to be developed. Key milestones will include a decision on an emissions pricing mechanism for agriculture and release of the government’s emissions budget.

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  • Stefan Vogel

    General Manager – RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand.
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  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Commodities Analyst
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  • Genevieve Steven

    Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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