North American Agribusiness Review Agribusiness August 2023

This periodical update provides a market outlook for dairy, cattle, wheat, and other key commodities, and gives an overview of what developments to watch in the upcoming months in North America.

- Economy: Improvement in inflation data without a perceived decline in economic activity raises hopes of a soft landing, but a recession in 2H is still possible.

- Logistics: Panama Canal congestion, trucking bankruptcy, and El Niño impact global logistics. 

- Consumer Retail & Foodservice: Overall inflation has eased, but restaurants have not received the memo. 

- Cattle: Cattle supplies tighten as drought remains a concern across relatively wide swaths of North America.

- Corn: Topsoil moisture remains low in parts of the Corn Belt.

- Dairy: Milk production was flat in June as cow numbers dropped, driven by low milk prices in Q2.

- Farm Inputs: August/September offer the first blush into next year’s cost structure as seed price transparency emerges.

- Feed: Corn is getting more affordable in animal feed rations.

- Fruit: Reduced “Flor Loca” crop pushes avocado prices near historic highs.

- Pork: Larger seasonal production to weigh on returns.

- Poultry: Chicken markets reach a supply inflection, improved profits to follow.

- Soybeans: Price spread draws Brazilian beans to the US.

- Sweeteners: Mexico’s balance sheet remains really tight.

- Tree Nuts: Elimination of retaliatory tariffs by India to foster US exports.

- Vegetables: Aside from short-term seasonality, higher production and lower prices are expected for marketing year 2023/24.

- Wheat: Global uncertainty to remain the wild card.

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