North American Agribusiness Review June 2023

El Niño

June 2023

This periodical update provides a market outlook for dairy, cattle, wheat, and other key commodities, and gives an overview of what developments to watch in the upcoming months in North America.

- Economy: The Fed is not done, and we do not anticipate any rate cuts in North America this year.

- Logistics: Labor disruptions remain front and center as the global supply chain recovers.

- Consumer Retail & Foodservice: Prices have gradually trickled down as retailers and restaurants carefully manage price increases so as not to shock demand.

- Cattle: Beef and cattle prices move to new highs as supplies tighten and demand stays historically strong.

- Corn: Topsoil moisture remains low in parts of the Corn Belt.

- Dairy: Milk production remains higher versus last year, with further price weakness materializing in Q2.

- Farm Inputs: A bearish sentiment in the global markets continues to drive fertilizer prices lower.

- Feed: Feed prices are easing but remain high relative to the last five years.

- Fruit: California strawberry shipments are strong, and supplies are likely to remain steady during summer.

- Pork: Industry losses will force herd contraction in 2H 2023 and 2024.

- Poultry: Chicken markets trail expectations on increased supply.

- Soybeans: Price spread draws Brazilian beans to the US.

- Sweeteners: Balance sheet and sugar prices are not on the same page.

- Tree Nuts: Mixed market signals and uneven export figures.

- Vegetables: After a short period of counter-seasonal movements, prices returned to historical averages.

- Wheat: While the wheat market has followed the broader commodity market’s downward trend, wheat futures have remained well above long-term averages and within a broad trading range.