New Zealand Agribusiness April 2021

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.


Report summary

• Dairy supply chain pressures will continue to support commodity prices over the coming weeks, as freight logistics cause headaches for exporters
• Beef farmgate prices expected to hold steady during April, with the reduced competition from Australia and a weaker exchange rate at the end of March helping to provide a firm pricing floor
• Continued sheepmeat demand from key markets, in combination with seasonal tightening of supply, expected to see prices firm through April 2021
• A year after ‘V-day’, Chinese food channels remain heavily distorted, and only a slow drift to normalisation in 2021 is expected
• Global prices projected to begin to subside in April, initially for urea, before phosphates follow later in Q2. For local farmers acquiring phosphate, relief will be too late for this season.
• The NZD has lost ground against a stimulated USD. A little further downside for the NZD is expected in the near term, and some strengthening thereafter, as expectations for US inflation prove over-done.
• Brent Crude expected to stabilize at around the USD 60/bbl level for the remainder of 2021
  • Tim Hunt

    Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - Australia & New Zealand
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Analyst - Agriculture
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  • Charles Clack

    Commodity Analyst
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds, Animal Protein
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  • Blake Holgate

    Analyst - Animal Protein, Sustainability
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