New Zealand Agribusiness August 2023: Colliding Price and Weather Pressure

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.


- Dairy: The triggers for a rebalance in dairy markets are underway, with indicative milk prices in China shifting lower, down close to 10% YOY.

- Beef: Despite increasing volumes of Australian beef in the global market competing against New Zealand product, the seasonal decline in New Zealand production is expected to provide some stabilisation in cattle prices, albeit slightly lower than the five-year average.

- Sheepmeat: Lamb prices continued to fall through July and are approaching five-year lows. The ongoing large volumes of Australian lamb hitting the market and slower consumer conditions are likely to keep prices soft but the seasonal contraction in supply may limit further downside movement.

- Farm Inputs: For the coming months, international fertiliser prices are poised to decrease or remain stable. Despite production reductions since early 2023, supply is still greater than demand, putting pressure on prices, even now during the South American restocking period.

- FX/Interest Rates: Inflation was a little firmer than expected in the second quarter of the year, driving market speculation that the RBNZ may have to hike rates one more time. We still think this is unlikely and that rates will remain on hold well into 2024.

- Oil & Freight: Crude oil prices rallied in July as stronger-than-expected growth in the US and ongoing tensions in Ukraine drove markets higher.

  • Stefan Vogel

    General Manager – RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Senior Agriculture Analyst
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  • Pia Piggott

    Analyst – Associate Analyst
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Vítor Caçula Pistóia

    Analyst – Farm Inputs
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  • Edward McGeoch

    Associate Analyst – Agri Commodities
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