New Zealand Agribusiness December 2023: Is Christmas cheer on the horizon?

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks

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- Dairy: The dairy commodity market has shown some signs of life. Lower prices are offering international buyers an opportunity to procure raw materials at attractive prices. The milk supply outlook in key production regions is looking less favourable, which is providing price support.

- Beef: Beef prices are likely to track along the five-year average mark over the coming month on expectations that US prices will remain strong.

- Sheepmeat: With farmgate prices hitting seasonal peaks, all eyes are firmly on China as the country heads into the buying period for the Lunar New Year.

- Farm inputs: The final months of the year have shown a lack of global demand for farm inputs, although this does not guarantee lower prices ahead in 2024. The supply and demand elements are in a tangle and El Niño is no help.

- Interest rates and FX: The NZD surged by more than 3 cents against the USD in November as the market priced in US rate cuts and the RBNZ warned of the possibility of another rate hike. We think that the OCR has peaked and falling goods inflation from offshore will help push inflation rates lower.

- Oil and freight: Crude oil prices fell again in November as an extended cease-fire between Israel and Hamas calmed markets and disagreements between OPEC+ members over production cuts muddied the waters over the outlook for the balance between supply and demand.

  • Stefan Vogel

    General Manager – RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Anna Drake

    Sustainability Analyst
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Jen Corkran

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Edward McGeoch

    Associate Analyst – Agri Commodities
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  • Pia Piggott

    Analyst – Associate Analyst
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  • Vítor Caçula Pistóia

    Analyst – Farm Inputs
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