New Zealand Agribusiness July 2021

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.


Report summary

- Milk flows hit a new record for 2020/21 based on good weather and strong prices. We expect a similar volume of milk for the 2021/22 season. 

- Beef returns are riding high on the imported US beef price, helping to keep prices at the farmgate elevated over July.

- Demand for sheepmeat remains robust in key New Zealand export markets, buoying returns locally.

- Global fertiliser markets found yet another gear in June, with most prices in the nutrient complex increasing between 5% and 20%. Locally, high prices are here to stay for the remainder of winter and spring, with further upside possible if local supply tightens.

- Rabobank’s outlook remains unchanged, with expectations that the NZD will recover to the USc 74 range over the six-month outlook, where it should remain on a 12-month view.

- Brent crude prices have continued to increase through June, supported by ongoing investment in commodity markets. We maintain our bullish view moving forward, and we expect Crude Oil to remain  in the low 70 USD’s / bbl to year end.
  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds; Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness – Australia & New Zealand, a.i.
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Analyst - Agriculture
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  • Genevieve Steven

    Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds, Animal Protein
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