New Zealand Agribusiness June 2021

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.


Report summary

- In dairy, strong production growth as well as import growth points to a well-stocked market, as China seems unable to quench its thirst for safety stocks for now

- Beef farmgate prices are expected to lift over June, with the reduced competition from Australia helping to provide a firm pricing floor

- Continued sheepmeat demand from key markets, in combination with seasonal tightening of supply, is expected to see prices firm through June 2021

- Australian foodservice recovery outpaced that of China and the US in April, but will slow with Victoria’s lockdown

- Downside ahead expected for global urea markets in coming months. Due to the time taken for procurement and shipping, it is expected that this will be too late for local farmers this winter and spring season.

- Rabobank expects that the divergence of expectations for rates in the two countries will see the NZD hit USc 74 within six months

- Ocean freight prices for dry bulk and container freight continue to trade at record highs. Without any significant government intervention, it is expected to see this rate spike continuing into Q1 2022.
  • Tim Hunt

    Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - Australia & New Zealand
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst - Dairy
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst - Animal Protein
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  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds; Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness – Australia & New Zealand, a.i.
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Analyst - Agriculture
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  • Charles Clack

    Commodity Analyst
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds, Animal Protein
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