New Zealand Agribusiness June 2022: Firm Prices To Kick Winter Off

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

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- Dairy: Global milk supply growth remains elusive, supporting a solid commodity price floor over the coming months. Chinese demand will determine how high the commodity price needle moves.

- Beef: RaboResearch anticipates that farmgate beef pricing will remain elevated in the winter months, supported by a tight global supply situation. However, high retail beef prices and inflationary pressure are starting to soften demand.

- Sheepmeat: We anticipate farmgate pricing to remain elevated and lift further through winter, but lockdowns in China, and rampant inflation in Europe and the US, are key risks to pricing.

- Downstream Markets: With each passing day, consumers are becoming more acutely aware of the broader inflationary pressures across the global economy. There are more and more data points confirming this is impacting discretionary spending and we see consumers trading down.

- Farm Inputs:Global urea prices have fallen notably since March and we expect that to filter down locally from now to August.

- FX/Interest RatesThe NZD recovered to USc 0.65 at the end of May and we see further upside potential. In its monetary policy outlook, RBNZ shows the quarterly average of the Official Cash Rate to hit 3.95% by in 2H 2023.

- Oil/Freight: Oil markets globally remain tight, and a big potential price driver is the planned EU sanction banning imports of crude oil from Russia into the EU. Port congestions in Asia seems to be clearing up, but global bottleneck issues remain.

  • Stefan Vogel

    General Manager – RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand.
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Commodities Analyst
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Genevieve Steven

    Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst – Agriculture
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