New Zealand agribusiness June 2024: Winter chills pricing outlooks

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

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Dairy: Farmgate milk price forecasts are likely to clash with budgets that have little room to move for the new 2024/25 season. Recent commodity price improvement has been helpful but Chinese import demand is likely to wane once again this year.

Beef: Farmgate prices for all cohorts of cattle continue to sit around 10% above five-year averages. Export demand from the US remains strong and the winter outlook is positive for beef pricing.

Sheepmeat: The needle is moving upward for lamb pricing, with procurement pressures helping. There is upside in export volumes to both the UK and US while China continues to be sluggish.

Farm inputs: Farm input markets remain quiet as demand is soft and supply outputs are steady. On the other hand, high freight prices are negatively impacting further farmgate price reductions.

Interest rates and FX: The RBNZ wrong-footed economists and traders by signalling that interest rates will remain higher for longer at the May policy rate meeting.

Oil and freight: Crude oil prices in May recorded their first monthly decline of the year. Container freight jumped 50% in May to a new 2024 high, which will make imported goods into New Zealand more expensive.

  • Stefan Vogel

    General Manager – RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Jen Corkran

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Anna Drake

    Sustainability Analyst
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  • Pia Piggott

    Analyst – Associate Analyst
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  • Vítor Caçula Pistóia

    Grains & Oilseed Analyst
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