New Zealand agribusiness March 2024: Welcome, autumn

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks

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Dairy: Global milk supplies are still struggling to get positive momentum. Stronger global dairy prices will help with improved farmgate margins, with global milk supply lifting by the year’s end.

Beef: New Zealand beef markets are looking positive, and it appears they will remain this way throughout the year, with pricing at or above the five-year average. This is fuelled by strong US demand and lower-than-average slaughter numbers to date.

Sheepmeat: The waiting game continues for sheepmeat pricing with little movement to start the year. Early signals show there may be some relief in 2H 2024. Farm inputs: Bearish grain and oilseed markets keep pressuring farm inputs worldwide, skewing the balance towards supply even further.

Interest rates and FX: The New Zealand dollar dropped sharply at the end of February after the RBNZ signaled that the OCR has likely peaked. We expect it to rally up to 0.6400 on a 12-month view.

Oil and freight: Crude oil prices pushed higher again in February and diesel prices were also firmer. We see potential for a short-term pullback in March, before prices rally further into the second half of the year.

  • Stefan Vogel

    General Manager – RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Anna Drake

    Sustainability Analyst
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Jen Corkran

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Edward McGeoch

    Associate Analyst – Agri Commodities
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  • Pia Piggott

    Analyst – Associate Analyst
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  • Vítor Caçula Pistóia

    Analyst – Farm Inputs
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