New Zealand Agribusiness May 2023: Fresh Prices, Fresh Autumn Conditions

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

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- Dairy: Global commodity markets are showing some signs of optimism in late April and Oceania commodity returns find some resistance. New Zealand milk supplies are rebounding against weaker comparables from last year and a really wet summer. New Zealand live dairy exports by sea will cease in late May.

- Beef: Global beef prices are being supported by strong US and recovering Chinese import demand. New Zealand farmgate prices are expected to remain elevated through autumn and winter, but high inventory levels in China could cause downward pricing pressure.

- Sheepmeat: Farmgate prices are anticipated to continue to benefit from the recovery of the foodservice sector in China over the coming months. Robust gross margin analysis is encouraged on winter trading stock.

- Farm Inputs: Several factors are influencing the fertiliser market, from raw material and energy prices to politics and demand. The urea price gained momentum during April as demand wakes up with the Northern Hemisphere spring, while phosphate and potash prices are more sticky.

- FX/Interest Rates: With inflation still well above target and growth in imports very strong, the RBNZ is very likely to increase the OCR by another 25bps to 5.50% on 24 May. New Zealand’s deteriorating trade position is a concern, and could place further pressure on the currency.

- Oil & Freight: Crude oil and diesel prices both dipped at the end of April. We expect this trend to continue in May as weaker global growth weighs on demand and higher refining capacity utilisation makes diesel more readily available.

  • Stefan Vogel

    General Manager – RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Genevieve Steven

    Former Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Senior Agriculture Analyst
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  • Pia Piggott

    Analyst – Associate Analyst
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Vítor Caçula Pistóia

    Analyst – Farm Inputs
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  • Edward McGeoch

    Associate Analyst – Agri Commodities
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