New Zealand Agribusiness November 2021: A Slow Start to New Season Growth

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

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Report summary

Dairy: A weakening global supply outlook will provide price support for dairy commodities in the near-term.

Beef: Strong demand and lower global beef supplies will support elevated farmgate pricing through to December.

• Sheepmeat:  Farmgate pricing is expected to remain elevated through to December off the back of strong demand from key markets and fewer lambs available due to the unfavourable seasonal conditions.

Downstream Markets: Consumer response to food inflation will be a local and global watching brief in months ahead.

• Farm Inputs:  Fertiliser prices are expected to remain at least at current levels in the run-up to next winter. Of even bigger concern is supply, with challenges growing over the last month.

• FX: More signs of inflationary pressure and at least one interest rate before the end of the year means we now see the NZD remaining above USc 70, and moving towards USc 73 on a nine-month view. 

• Oil: While we expect Brent Crude is nearing a short term peak, the fundamentals of the global oil markets remain strong. We expect Brent crude will trade around 81 USD/bbl into the second half of 2022.

  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Commodities Analyst; Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness – Australia & New Zealand, a.i.
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Genevieve Steven

    Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst – Agriculture
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