New Zealand Agribusiness November 2023: Hope ahead for Christmas?
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
- Dairy: The dairy commodity market has shown some signs of life. Lower prices are offering international buyers an opportunity to procure raw materials at attractive prices. The milk supply outlook in key production regions is looking less favourable, which is providing price support.
- Beef: Beef prices are likely to track along the five-year average mark over the coming month off the back of anticipation that US prices will remain strong.
- Sheepmeat: With farmgate prices hitting seasonal peaks, all eyes are firmly on Chinese demand as the country heads into the buying period for the Lunar New Year.
- Farm inputs: For farmers, the overall beneficial outlook for farm inputs is still in place despite the Israel-Hamas conflict. The situation could be better for farmers’ 2024 budgets, and currency and energy costs are risks to watch.
- FX/interest rates: Third quarter inflation was much lower than expected, which has dampened the prospect of any further increases in the official cash rate. As a result of lowered interest rate expectations, the New Zealand dollar was sold heavily in October and is now trading a little above USc 58.
- Oil and freight: Crude oil prices fell slightly in October despite the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas. If the war spreads to draw in Iran, we see a worst-case scenario where prices could hit USD 150/bbl. Containerised freight rates cooled further in October and reliability picked up.
Where to go from here
Stefan VogelGeneral Manager – RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand Read more
Emma HigginsSenior Analyst – Agriculture Read more
Angus Gidley-BairdSenior Analyst – Animal Protein Read more
Pia PiggottAnalyst – Associate Analyst Read more
Michael HarveySenior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods Read more
Vítor Caçula PistóiaAnalyst – Farm Inputs
Edward McGeochAssociate Analyst – Agri Commodities