New Zealand Agribusiness October 2021: Booming Pricing but Grass Growth Sluggish
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
• Dairy: Wet and cold conditions underfoot in local dairying regions could impact the spring peak – which could provide support for commodity prices.
• Beef: A global shortage of beef and strong domestic demand in the US is expected to continue to support farmgate pricing in New Zealand.
• Sheepmeat: Sustained demand from key markets for sheepmeat will likely continue to support elevated farmgate pricing, however we anticipate pricing will ease in line with seasonal supply trends pre-Christmas.
• Venison: A positive outlook long-term for venison but a slow recovery in the pricing schedule anticipated over the next 12 months.
• Downstream Markets: A Delta variant outbreak takes its toll on China foodservice markets.
• Farm Inputs: Policy changes in China have heightened the risk of Australian farmers not being able to access local supplies for next season, meaning high prices, and a high level of supply risk is expected to continue into 2022.
• FX: Rabobank forecasts the NZD/USD will trade near to USc 0.69 on a three-month view, and toward USc 0.72 and USc 0.74 on a nine-month and 12-month view respectively.
• Oil: Brent crude prices increased during September and further in early October, exceeding USD 80/bbl.
Where to go from here
Cheryl Kalisch GordonSenior Commodities Analyst; Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness – Australia & New Zealand, a.i. Read more
Emma HigginsSenior Analyst – Agriculture Read more
Michael HarveySenior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods Read more
Wesley LefroySenior Analyst – Agriculture Read more
Angus Gidley-BairdSenior Analyst – Animal Protein Read more
Genevieve StevenAnalyst – Agriculture Read more
Dennis VoznesenskiAnalyst – Agriculture