New Zealand Agribusiness Outlook 2021
Although the global context is very challenging – with the pandemic still raging, La Niña affecting production, political tensions, and trade wars – NZ ag seems to be in a good position to set up another profitable year.
Most sectors are seeing average to above-average pricing and manageable cost inflation, while production is holding up well. However, the 2021 outlook holds some risks, bringing even more uncertainty than most years.
The focus of NZ agriculture on the Chinese market has never been higher, so what happens in China in 2021 will be vital to shaping the year.
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch.
• Profitable season expected for dairy farmers in 2020/21, with supportive price settings for early 2021/22
• Beef farmgate prices to remain marginally below the five-year average through most of 2021, due to continuing foodservice restrictions, strong competition from South America, and a high NZD
• Higher-value lamb cuts export returns expected below 2019/20 levels, due to weak foodservice and incomes in the EU and US, but Chinese demand will help
• Significant challenges in 2021 in each of NZ’s three largest wine export markets
• Demand for fresh produce to remain strong, although Covid-19 disruptions to labour supply may pose some challenges
Where to go from here
Tim HuntHead of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - Australia & New Zealand Read more
Emma HigginsSenior Analyst - Dairy Read more
Michael HarveySenior Analyst - Dairy Read more
Angus Gidley-BairdSenior Analyst - Animal Protein Read more
Cheryl Kalisch GordonSenior Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds Read more
Wesley LefroyAnalyst - Agriculture Read more
Charles ClackCommodity Analyst Read more
Dennis VoznesenskiAnalyst - Grains & Oilseeds, Animal Protein
Blake HolgateAnalyst - Animal Protein, Sustainability