New Zealand Agribusiness September 2021: NZ Spring Price Records Sprung

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

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Report summary

- New Zealand’s spring peak is fast approaching, with the strength of the flush set to shape dairy commodity prices over the next two months.

- Beef farmgate pricing is expected to remain strong until at least October, off the back of export limitations in Argentina.

- Lamb pricing is expected to hold across the beginning of spring, given the strong demand from key export markets and procurement pressure within New Zealand.

- The Covid-19 Delta variant is continuing to cloud the pathway to reopening food markets.

- High global fertiliser prices are expected to stay until the new year at least, primarily driven by demand resulting from the ongoing strength of commodity prices.

- We have pulled back our NZD forecasts marginally, to moving below USc 70 in the near term, but see it maintaining its value over the balance of the year.

- Brent Crude has slipped in recent weeks, with prices falling from USD 77/bbl to as low as USD 65/bbl. We expect this trend to reverse toward the end of the year, and prices to strengthen again.
  • Cheryl Kalisch Gordon

    Senior Commodities Analyst; Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness – Australia & New Zealand, a.i.
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Wesley Lefroy

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Genevieve Steven

    Analyst – Agriculture
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