New Zealand Agribusiness September 2023: Riding the Rollercoaster of Returns

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.


- Dairy: There were further falls in commodity prices in August. Weakness in the dairy complex has set in for now and patience is required for the Chinese market to rebalance. On a positive note, for commodity prices, milk supply growth across key export regions is losing steam as milk prices fall and weather risks linger.

- Beef: RaboResearch anticipates schedule prices to follow the normal seasonal trend upwards, tracking close to the five-year average as production seasonally declines.

- Sheepmeat: Softer demand from key markets and full supply chains remain the theme underpinning prices for lamb in the weeks ahead. Tough market settings may limit price upside at a time when schedule prices are generally hitting their peak.

- Farm Inputs: Fertiliser references had a relevant upward correction in August, but this is likely to be short-lived. There is no strong competition for cargo as Northern Hemisphere players are focussing on harvest. This upside is a sign that global oversupply is coming to an end and that supply and demand should rebalance in a few months’ time.

- FX/Interest Rates: The NZD dropped by almost 3% in August as markets worry about softening demand from China. Inflation concerns remain, but we don’t expect the RBNZ to raise rates any further.

- Oil & Freight: Crude oil prices continue to lift as economic resilience in the US and signs of extended production cuts from OPEC further exacerbate the supply/demand imbalance in markets. Diesel prices continue to rise relative to crude oil.

  • Stefan Vogel

    General Manager – RaboResearch Australia & New Zealand
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  • Emma Higgins

    Senior Analyst – Agriculture
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  • Angus Gidley-Baird

    Senior Analyst – Animal Protein
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  • Dennis Voznesenski

    Senior Agriculture Analyst
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  • Pia Piggott

    Analyst – Associate Analyst
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  • Michael Harvey

    Senior Analyst – Dairy & Consumer Foods
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  • Vítor Caçula Pistóia

    Analyst – Farm Inputs
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  • Edward McGeoch

    Associate Analyst – Agri Commodities
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