The Impact of EU Road Transport Decarbonization on Biofuels, G&O, and Sugar: An Outlook Toward 2050

The path toward decarbonization in road transportation in the EU will require a multifaceted approach that, besides traditional biofuels, will also include the use of renewable electricity, green hydrogen, and other advanced biofuels. The adoption of these newer technologies, along with regulations that seemingly will ban the sale of internal combustion engine cars by 2035, will slowly replace the vehicle fleet and negatively impact the demand for fossil fuel and biofuel as early as 2025, with a bigger impact after 2030.

Report summary

There is, however, great uncertainty as to whether and at what speed these renewable technologies will take off at large scale. It is possible that unforeseen events in the future could affect the projected development and uptake of new vehicle technologies and advanced biofuels. Under these circumstances, conventional biofuels could potentially play a more significant role in achieving the EU´s emissions reductions targets.