Sugar Quarterly Q1 2020

Rabobank anticipates a 6.7m metric ton global deficit through the 2019/20 (Oct-Sep) season, as deep cuts in Thai and Indian production are partially offset by higher prospects for Brazil. Looking ahead to 2020/21, our early expectations point to a 0.6m metric ton raw value surplus, as Brazil, India, and the EU see production reach levels close to five-year averages, according to the latest Sugar Quarterly.

Report summary

“Early February saw ICE #11 raw sugar futures soaring above USc 15/lb, as the full damage to the Thai harvest became apparent. Soon after, the coronavirus crisis was already undermining prices, but it wasn’t until Russia abandoned its oil supply pact with OPEC that the real bombshell arrived, as oil plunged to around USD 30/bbl, dragging sugar down below USc 11/lb,” according to Andy Duff, Global Strategist – Sugar.

“Regarding the effects of the coronavirus crisis on consumption, Rabobank does not foresee a major impact on 2019/20 global sugar consumption but a small erosion in countries severely hit by the virus, resulting in flat demand globally. For now, we anticipate a return to more ‘normal’ demand growth in 2020/21.”

  • Andy Duff

    Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - South America; Global Strategist - Sugar
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  • Pablo Sherwell

    Lead of F&A Data Analytics - North America
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  • Lief Chiang

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Charles Clack

    Commodity Analyst
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  • Stephen Nicholson

    Senior Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Maria Afonso

    Senior Analyst – Sugar, Grains & Oilseeds
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