Sugar Quarterly Q4 2019

Following reductions in our 2019/20 (Oct-Sep) production forecasts for India, Thailand, and the EU, Rabobank´s projected global deficit has deepened to 8.2m metric tons raw value. This is 3m metric tons more than our previous forecast and, if realized, would be the largest deficit since 2015/16, according to the latest RaboResearch Sugar Quarterly.

Report summary

Andy Duff, Global Strategist – Sugar: “NY futures rising above USc 13/lb marks a notable adjustment in market sentiment. This more positive tone has arguably been long-awaited, heralded by the constructive 2019/20 fundamental outlook.”

“Nevertheless, the presence of old crop stocks – particularly in India – suggests that further upside will be limited, with the gradual erosion of stocks bringing the global stocks/consumption ratio back to its long-term average over the next three quarters of the year.”

  • Andy Duff

    Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - South America; Global Strategist - Sugar
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  • Pablo Sherwell

    Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - North America
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  • Lief Chiang

    Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Charles Clack

    Commodity Analyst
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  • Stephen Nicholson

    Senior Analyst - Grains & Oilseeds
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  • Maria Afonso

    Senior Analyst – Sugar, Grains & Oilseeds
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