The North American Sugar Market: A Quick Update to Our Baseline Outlook

Many global and domestic factors are impacting the sugar market in different ways this year. There are plenty of unknowns, particularly when it comes to the war in Ukraine and its implications for global markets. In our 2022-2030 sugar baseline, we found that US sugar prices are likely to remain well-supported through the rest of this year and next. In the longer run, we anticipate US sugar price levels are likely to moderate but to remain higher than historical averages.

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Contrary to what is happening with US prices and with the rest of the world, Mexican prices struggle to gain momentum due to relatively ample supplies. Mexican consumption remains somewhat weak, and exports to the US look sluggish for the years to come. However, sugar consumption could regain some ground, as high-fructose corn syrup may lose some competitiveness in the demand for Mexican sweeteners as corn prices continue to move higher.